South Africa’s logistics bill to hit R1.156 trillion in 2026

South Africa’s national logistics costs are projected to reach R1.156 trillion in 2026, equivalent to 14.6% of GDP, as rising transport expenditure increases the cost of moving goods through the economy, according to GAIN Group’s State of Logistics 2026 report. The report identifies potential annual savings of R149.3 billion through improved rail performance, greater road transport efficiency and reduced port-related delays.

The national logistics bill is forecast to rise by R147 billion from an estimated R1.009 trillion in 2025. Its share of GDP would reach the highest level in the report’s 2003–2026 series, compared with the 10–12% range generally recorded between 2009 and 2018.

However, the report cautions against treating the ratio as a direct measure of efficiency. Geography, transport distances, freight intensity and changes in economic output also influence the result.

“Freight logistics is itself an essential productive activity, and not all associated expenditure is avoidable,” the report states. “The economic concern is the additional burden arising from unreliable infrastructure, inefficient operations and other addressable constraints.”

Transport remains the largest component, accounting for approximately R683 billion, or 59% of logistics expenditure in 2026. Transport costs are projected to increase by R117 billion from 2025, contributing almost 80% of the increase in the national bill.

Inventory carrying costs are estimated at R191.4 billion, followed by warehousing at R151.7 billion and management and administration at approximately R130 billion.

The impact of unreliable freight movement extends across these categories, increasing stock requirements, storage demand and the cost of coordinating operations.

“Consequently, inefficiencies in one part of the freight system may increase expenditure across several components,” the report notes.

The report’s improved logistics scenario identifies R149.3 billion in potentially avoidable costs in 2026. It combines direct transport savings from improved rail performance with an assumed 10% efficiency saving on road transport expenditure remaining after modal shift, alongside reductions in port-related road transport inefficiencies and delays.

Under these assumptions, national logistics expenditure would fall to approximately R1.007 trillion, or 12.7% of GDP, compared with the baseline forecast of 14.6%. These are modelled potential savings, rather than savings already achieved.

Even with these improvements, logistics costs would continue to rise relative to economic output.

“The challenge is therefore both to improve logistics performance and to achieve stronger economic growth relative to the cost of supporting that activity,” the report reads.