$125 billion in trade stranded as Hormuz crisis reshapes shipping

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has left around $125 billion worth of vessel and cargo value awaiting passage from the Persian Gulf, underlining the growing impact of geopolitical disruptions on global shipping and supply chains, according to Allianz Commercial's Safety and Shipping Review 2026.

The report said approximately 1,150 cargo-carrying vessels, representing around 29 million gross tonnes and carrying cargo and vessel value estimated at $125 billion, remain in the Persian Gulf following the disruption. Allianz Research estimates that as many as 20,000 seafarers have been affected as they wait for operations to resume after recent diplomatic developments.

The insurer said the Strait of Hormuz crisis reflects a broader shift toward what it described as a "new maritime order", characterised by rising security threats along strategic shipping corridors, disruptions to established trade routes, higher risk premiums and a greater emphasis on resilience in global logistics networks.

Thomas Lillelund, CEO of Allianz Commercial, said the shipping industry has made progress in improving maritime safety but now operates in a more uncertain environment. "Our analysis shows the shipping industry has made significant improvements in maritime safety in recent years. However, it has also undergone a fundamental transformation, from decades of relative stability, defined by steady trade flows and largely predictable operating conditions, to becoming increasingly complex and volatile. The Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure are just the latest in a series of severe interruptions to hit shipowners and cargo operators. Resilience, geopolitics, and efficiency must be balanced in an increasingly unpredictable world, where the cost of uncertainty is reshaping the shipping industry."

The report noted that marine insurance coverage has remained available throughout the conflict, though at higher hull and cargo premium levels. Allianz said the greater concern for shipowners has been the safety of crews and vessels transiting through conflict zones rather than insurance availability. Before the disruption, the Strait of Hormuz handled as many as 140 vessels a day, making it one of the world's most important maritime chokepoints.

Captain Rahul Khanna, Global Head of Marine Risk Consulting at Allianz Commercial, said the closure has highlighted the vulnerability of global supply chains to disruptions in critical trade routes. "We are seeing growing uncertainty around shipping routes. Any type of event – a conflict, a pandemic or a grounded vessel blocking a key port or shipping canal – can potentially cause a major disruption to shipping and supply chains. The events in the Middle East have been more impactful than many would have expected. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz sets a dangerous precedent and raises questions around the long-term future of this and other critical chokepoints. What is becoming clear is that we have to pay a price for uncertainty, shifting from 'just-in-time' to 'just-in-case' supply chains and prioritising resilience over cost efficiency."

Despite geopolitical pressures, Allianz reported that long-term maritime safety indicators continue to improve. More than 900 total vessel losses involving ships over 100 gross tonnes have been recorded globally during the past decade. Total losses declined from 555 between 2016 and 2020 to 350 between 2021 and 2025, representing a 37% reduction. In 2025, 43 total losses were reported, with more than 30 involving vessels larger than 500 gross tonnes.

The South China Sea, Indochina, Indonesia and the Philippines region remained the leading global loss hotspot over both the past year and the past decade, recording 255 losses. Allianz attributed this trend to the concentration of shipping activity across one of the world's busiest maritime regions.

Shipping incidents also continued to decline globally. The number of incidents fell by 16% year on year to 2,818 in 2025 from 3,353 in 2024. The East Mediterranean and Black Sea region recorded the highest number of incidents at 622, followed by the British Isles with 619 incidents. Machinery damage or failure remained the leading cause of incidents, accounting for 1,505 cases, while vessel collisions ranked second with 260 incidents.

Fire continues to be a significant source of concern for shipowners, insurers and cargo interests. Allianz recorded more than 200 fire incidents involving large vessels in 2025, making it the second-highest annual total recorded during the past decade despite a decline from the previous year. At least nine total vessel losses were linked to fire incidents.

The report also highlighted the growing financial impact of general average claims, where shipowners and cargo owners share the costs of losses or emergency expenditures incurred to save a vessel and its cargo. Allianz said these claims are becoming larger as vessel sizes increase, with cargo contributions in some cases reaching up to 50% of cargo value. For vessels carrying thousands of electric vehicles, total contributions can exceed $100 million.

Justus Heinrich, Global Product Leader Marine Hull at Allianz Commercial, said companies increasingly need to understand how multiple risks interact. "Insurance markets react quickly to crises, but the real challenge for companies is understanding how risks are interconnected. That's why resilience and risk management are becoming just as important as insurance coverage. The shipping industry is facing turbulent times, not only from geopolitical instability but also from traditional hull and machinery risks, where we see claims costs continue to rise, as well as from decarbonisation and fleet renewal challenges. Our role as an insurer is to support our clients as both a risk carrier and a resilience partner to mitigate risks before they become a damaging loss event."

Allianz also identified a trend toward an ageing global fleet. The average age of vessels increased to 23 years in 2025, compared with around 20 years before the Covid-19 pandemic. The insurer attributed the rise to shipowners retaining vessels for longer amid geopolitical disruptions and capacity constraints, including rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and delays caused by regional conflicts.

According to the report, vessels more than 20 years old account for over half of all safety incidents. Allianz warned that ageing fleets increase exposure to structural, mechanical and technological failures, creating risks for crews, cargo and vessel operations.

Captain Nitin Chopra, Senior Marine Risk Consultant at Allianz Commercial, said fleet renewal efforts face several obstacles. "Shipowners are under pressure to scrap older vessels and replace them with new, more efficient, safer and compliant ships. However, the recent pushback against net zero targets and full order books at the major Asian shipyards are other factors which could ensure the average age of vessels is likely to remain elevated in the near term."

The findings indicate that while the shipping industry has succeeded in reducing losses and incidents over the long term, geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, ageing fleets and operational risks are reshaping how shipowners, cargo operators and insurers assess risk. Allianz said the industry is increasingly prioritising resilience and continuity of operations as uncertainty becomes a defining feature of global maritime trade.