Suez route uncertainty clouds Asia-Pacific outlook for air cargo

Uncertainty around the Red Sea and Suez Canal continues to influence global freight planning in December, with Dimerco warning that a return to the traditional Suez route remains unclear despite ongoing discussions in the shipping industry. The report notes that even a ceasefire may not guarantee safe passage in the region, and carriers remain cautious about reinstating the route. This unresolved situation will keep the market unstable as decisions on routing directly affect transit times, capacity and supply chain flows across Asia and the world.

According to the report, the industry’s outlook is now shaped by two major unknowns, inventory restocking patterns and the return of vessels to the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Carriers remain conservative because current conditions do not assure safety for normal operations. If they do eventually return to the Suez route, more capacity may enter the market and rates could ease. If routing via the Cape of Good Hope continues, longer transit times may lead to equipment shortages on land. Either outcome presents the risk of instability for global logistics.

These uncertainties come at a time when Asia-Pacific air freight remains active. Dimerco’s December report shows strong transpacific demand driven by e-commerce shipments to the United States after Black Friday and Thanksgiving promotions. High-volume flows from Southeast Asia continue to fill key hubs such as Taipei, Hong Kong, Incheon, Narita and Singapore, while demand on China–Mexico lanes has increased as shippers advance cargo ahead of potential tariff changes.

Intra-Asia movements are also busy, with raw materials moving between China, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia to support production. Airlines indicate that 2026 BSA rates may stay close to current levels even if the market softens next year. This broader regional tightness influences the capacity available to India through various transit points.

India’s air freight market remains strong for electronics, garments and e-commerce exports. Capacity to the United States is tight because most US-bound shipments from India are being routed through Europe, reducing the available space. Winter fog in North India and congestion at major hubs may add pressure, while the limited number of new freighters and restricted belly space keeps the market stiff.

Across Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia all report tight or rising rates, especially on US and Europe lanes. Vietnam expects limited space before Christmas and New Year, while the Philippines notes that regular rates no longer guarantee space from Manila. Singapore is experiencing tight capacity as shippers rush quarter-end volumes before the holiday period.

North American patterns also affect flows linked to India. Capacity from the United States to Asia is tightening due to high-tech export volumes, and some terminals in Chicago face congestion. Canada reports stable conditions, although fewer direct flights to Asia are available.

Weather disruptions earlier in the season, particularly in China, caused carriers to shift capacity from short-haul to long-haul routes, tightening Southeast Asia lanes. The grounding of MD-11F aircraft after a crash has reduced global long-haul freighter capacity, especially on e-commerce routes, and may push rates higher through December.

As peak-season demand continues and the Red Sea–Suez situation remains uncertain, Indian exporters may need to plan early, consider flexible routings and prepare for longer transit times. The combination of regional tightness, weather effects and global routing concerns is expected to keep India’s air freight environment under pressure through the month.