Africa’s ship market to reach $615 million by 2035: IndexBox report

Africa’s maritime shipping sector is charting a course toward recovery, with recent figures pointing to a gradual rebound in vessel consumption, import volumes and regional production. A newly released report from IndexBox forecasts that the continent’s market for ships and ferry-boats—primarily used for transporting people—is expected to reach a valuation of $615 million and 396 units in volume by 2035, supported by modest annual growth in both demand and production capacity.

Between 2024 and 2035, the market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.1% in unit terms and 2.5% in value, indicating stable long-term potential for vessel suppliers and associated logistics providers operating in Africa.

Market trends: Stabilising after years of contraction
The market's recovery comes after a prolonged period of decline. In 2024, consumption reached 353 ships, showing a return to growth after four consecutive years of contraction. The market’s total value also rose to $470 million, registering an 11% increase over 2023. Although still far below the peak of $936 million recorded in 2015, the uptick suggests renewed interest and investment in maritime assets across various African economies.

This upward trajectory remains cautious, however, with average annual vessel consumption still well below earlier highs. From 2020 through 2024, market volumes remained muted, reflecting broader economic challenges that suppressed large-scale procurement across several countries.

Kenya, Sierra Leone, and Senegal drive demand
The 2024 data shows that vessel consumption is concentrated among a few leading countries. Kenya, Sierra Leone, and Senegal emerged as the top markets by volume, consuming 46, 42, and 35 units, respectively. Collectively, they accounted for 35% of total consumption across the continent. Another cluster of countries—including Nigeria, Ghana, Angola, Madagascar, Tanzania, Uganda, and South Africa—made up an additional 27%.

In terms of expenditure, Kenya led with a total market value of $195 million, followed by Sierra Leone at $142 million, and Nigeria at $44 million. Combined, these three nations represented over 80% of total market value, suggesting a concentration of capital deployment in vessel acquisition within a limited number of economies.

Domestic shipbuilding: Modest but consistent
Africa’s ship production activities remain relatively limited in scale but are showing signs of consistency. In 2024, around 133 ships were produced locally—a slight increase from the previous year. The continent’s average annual production growth over the past decade has remained stable at 1.5%, though output has yet to match the peak of 142 units seen in 2015.

In value terms, $503 million worth of vessels were produced in 2024, marking a steady gain compared to previous years. From 2013 to 2024, production value grew at an average annual rate of 3.3%, supported by expanding operations in several key manufacturing hubs.

Sierra Leone, Kenya, and South Africa accounted for the bulk of production, with a combined share of 65%. Other countries contributing to output included Nigeria, Liberia, Tunisia, Botswana, Ghana, Benin, and Angola. Among them, Ghana posted the strongest growth in output over the review period, with an average annual increase of 14.5%.

Imports still dominate market dynamics
Despite some gains in local manufacturing, Africa continues to rely heavily on imported vessels to meet its maritime needs. In 2024, total imports rose to 281 ships, up 8.5% from the previous year. However, the longer-term trend shows a notable decline in volume, particularly when compared to 2019, when imports spiked to 1,600 units.

In monetary terms, imports were valued at $101 million in 2024—a sharp drop from the $336 million recorded in 2015. The decline reflects both a scaling back in volume and a reduction in average vessel prices.

Senegal was the leading importer by volume with 36 units, followed by Kenya (18 units), Nigeria (15), and a cluster of countries including Angola, Madagascar, Ghana, and Tanzania, each importing 13 units. These seven countries collectively made up 43% of Africa’s total imports. Additional notable importers included Uganda, Côte d’Ivoire, and Congo, which together brought in 28 ships.

On the value side, Nigeria was the top destination for imported vessels, accounting for $26 million—roughly one-quarter of total import value. Congo and Tanzania followed, with imports worth $6.8 million and $4.8 million, respectively.

Madagascar stood out as one of the few countries to post consistent import growth over the decade, with a CAGR of 9.1% in import volumes from 2013 to 2024.

Price variations and procurement strategies
Import prices for vessels varied significantly across countries. The average price per unit in 2024 was $361,000, representing a 25.5% decline from 2023. The most notable price surge occurred in 2020, when average import costs reached $641,000 per unit following a 285% increase—a likely consequence of post-pandemic supply disruptions.

Among major importers, Nigeria paid the highest average unit price at $1.7 million, while Kenya recorded one of the lowest at just $667 per unit. Other countries fell within this wide pricing range, highlighting the diverse nature of vessel types and procurement approaches across the continent.

Côte d’Ivoire showed the most aggressive growth in pricing over the past decade, with import prices increasing at an average rate of 32.7% per year.

Export activity declines in volume, rises in value
Africa’s export performance in the shipping sector remained subdued in 2024, with total exports dropping to 61 units—a 23.8% decline compared to the previous year. Export volumes have been trending downward since their 2015 peak of 103 units, though some value recovery was observed.

Export revenues surged to $54 million in 2024, reversing a previous decline. This suggests that although fewer vessels are being exported, higher-value ships or refurbished assets are fetching better prices.

South Africa led the continent’s export efforts, shipping 12 vessels worth $6.1 million. Liberia followed with 7 units at $3.5 million, while Egypt, Botswana, Congo, Kenya, Namibia, and Zimbabwe also contributed modest volumes. These countries collectively accounted for 74% of Africa’s total ship exports.

In value terms, Zambia recorded the most notable increase, with an average annual growth rate of 31.3%, signalling emerging capacity in the refurbished or specialised vessel space.

Rising export prices suggest a shift
The average export price in Africa rose sharply to $882,000 per unit in 2024—a 60% jump over the previous year. This follows years of volatility, with export prices peaking at $5.7 million per unit in 2015, before trending downward.

Among exporting nations, South Africa recorded an average price of $504,000 per unit, while Kenya exported ships at significantly lower values—just $6,900 per unit on average. This disparity underscores the broad range of vessel specifications, from basic crafts to more sophisticated or refurbished equipment.

Modest growth built on strategic demand
With the African shipping market forecasted to reach $615 million in value and 396 units in volume by 2035, the region appears to be entering a phase of steady, if cautious, growth. The reliance on imports continues, but improved domestic production and selective export activity are reshaping the continent’s maritime landscape.

Key consumption and production hubs such as Kenya, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, and South Africa will likely continue to influence regional dynamics, while countries like Ghana and Zambia emerge as future contributors to local output and trade.

For logistics stakeholders, manufacturers, and ship suppliers, these trends signal opportunities tied to strategic investments, procurement planning, and the development of supportive infrastructure across ports and shipyards.