Red Sea disruption shapes ocean freight outlook for 2026

The Red Sea disruption remained the most important factor shaping the ocean freight market through 2025 and into the outlook for 2026, according to the Freightos report. Since late 2023, container vessels have continued to avoid the Red Sea and Suez Canal, instead sailing around the much longer Cape of Good Hope route. This shift changed global shipping patterns, affected capacity availability and played a central role in how ocean freight rates and schedules developed during the year.

Longer routes absorb global container capacity
By diverting vessels away from the Red Sea, shipping lines added significant sailing time to each round trip. These longer journeys meant that ships returned later than planned and schedules became less reliable. To maintain weekly sailings on major trade lanes, carriers were forced to deploy additional vessels. Freightos estimates that these diversions absorbed about 9% of global container capacity. With more ships tied up for longer periods, effective capacity in the market was reduced, even though the global fleet itself continued to grow.

This loss of effective capacity was a key reason ocean freight rates surged during 2024 and stayed elevated into parts of 2025. On major lanes such as Asia–Europe and the transpacific, container rates reached very high seasonal peaks of between $8,000 and $10,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit in 2024. Even during normally weaker demand periods, prices remained higher than usual because vessels were spending more time at sea and fewer ships were available at any given moment.

New vessel deliveries create oversupply in 2025
However, the situation changed as 2025 progressed. While Red Sea diversions continued, a large number of new container vessels entered service. This expansion of the global fleet gradually outweighed the capacity absorbed by longer voyages. As a result, the ocean freight market moved into a position of oversupply. Throughout 2025, container rates were consistently lower than in 2024, even during months when cargo volumes were relatively strong. On some trade lanes, prices briefly fell to levels similar to those seen in 2023.

The Red Sea situation also influenced how carriers managed their networks and capacity. With ships taking longer routes, carriers had to carefully balance where they deployed vessels and how much space they offered on each lane. Despite the ongoing disruption, global container volumes continued to grow, supported by exporters shifting cargo to new markets. But the growing number of vessels entering the fleet meant that supply exceeded demand, placing downward pressure on freight rates.

Early moves signal possible Red Sea return in 2026
Towards the end of 2025, the Freightos report notes that several major carriers began taking cautious steps towards returning to the Red Sea route. These early moves increased expectations that transits through the Suez Canal and Red Sea could resume during 2026. If this happens, shipping routes would shorten again, allowing vessels to complete voyages more quickly and return to service sooner.

The report warns, however, that a return to the Red Sea would not be smooth. As ships move back onto the shorter route, there is likely to be a period of disruption. Vessels could arrive at European ports in clusters, leading to congestion and delays. At the same time, container and equipment shortages could emerge at origin ports in the Far East, as carriers try to take advantage of shorter transit times and faster vessel turnaround.

Rate pressure expected as capacity returns
In the early stages of this transition, ocean freight rates could rise, especially if Red Sea transits resume during periods of strong demand such as after the Lunar New Year or during the peak shipping season. But Freightos expects that once congestion eases and schedules stabilise, the return of capacity to the market would add to the existing oversupply. This would again put downward pressure on freight rates.

Capacity management remains key challenge for carriers
Looking ahead to 2026, the Red Sea remains a central uncertainty for the ocean freight market. Even though vessel deliveries are expected to slow compared with 2025, more ships will still enter the fleet. With additional capacity expected in 2027 and 2028, carriers will face ongoing pressure to manage supply carefully. According to Freightos, shipping lines may need to rely on measures such as blank sailings, idling vessels, scrapping older ships or slow steaming to prevent rates from falling too far.

Overall, the Freightos outlook shows that while trade patterns and demand matter, the Red Sea disruption has been the single most powerful force shaping ocean freight conditions. Its continuation helped tighten capacity and support rates earlier, while its possible resolution in 2026 could release capacity back into an already oversupplied market. How and when Red Sea transits normalise will therefore play a decisive role in determining ocean freight rates, reliability and carrier strategies in the year ahead.